Are we prepared for possible dam break?

by Dino Balabo

Angat Dam in Norzagaray, Bulacan

MALOLOS CITY—If the Philippines is not prepared for super typhoon Yolanda that left about 6,000 in casualties, it is surely not prepared for a dam break that can kill at least 100,000 in Bulacan alone.

This is due to the fact that the country is inexperience for such kind of tragedy, but experts and officials alike said its impacts can be minimized with proper preparations.

As this developed, Bulacan is gearing up for a locally initiated earthquake and dam break drill in preparation for possible breach of the giant Angat Dam which experts says is sitting near the Marikina West Valley Faultline (WMVF).

Noel Ortigas, Executive Vice President of the Engineering and Development Corporation of the Philippines (Edcop) told PromdiNEWS in an interview that 50 to 60 percent of Bulacan will be affected in case of Angat Dam break.

A Filipino owned company, Edcop partnered with New Zealand-based Tonkin and Taylor International in conducting a $1-Million dollar feasibility study on the integrity of the dam from late 2011 to early 2012.

Findings in the said study showed that 21 towns and cities in Bulacan will be affected rushing water from the dam along with three towns in Pampanga and three cities in Metro Manila.

During the interview, PromdiNEWS clarified Ortigas’ estimate by converting it into population.

Based on the 2007 census of population, Bulacan’s projected population by this year is about 3-million.

It means that at least 1.5-Million Bulakenyos will be affected based on Ortigas’ estimate of 50 percent to be affected.

 

Noel Ortigas, EdCOP

“Hindi naman lahat na yun ay fatal,” he said after PromdiNEWS clarified his statement.

When asked on how many is likely to die in Bulacan in case of Angat Dam break, it took a while for Ortigas to tell figures.  He later said about 100,000 could die.

Ortigas explained that the depth of water that will rush out of Angat will be different from town to town.

Based on the simulation study of Edcop and Tonkin, they estimated that 10 to 30 meters of water will rush especially on villages on the banks of the Angat River from Norzagaray town to Angat San Rafael, Bustos, Baliwag and Plaridel.

He said that as rush away from the dam, it will spread and it meant shallower flood in other towns.

Based on their estimates, floods in Pulilan and Calumpit towns will be between five to 10 meters deep; in Malolos City and other towns it will be less than that; but in the coastal town Hagonoy it might be between three to five meters.

However, other experts and officials do not necessarily agree with simulation study estimates.

Engineer Roderick Dela Cruz, a Bulakenyo dam safety expert based in California said in an earlier interview that Edcop must clarify the margin of error in their estimates.

Citing records from two previous dam release aggravated flooding in Bulacan, Dela Cruz said that Edcops estimates are very conservative.

Gov. Alvarado and Engr. Dela Cruz

He said, “in 1978, Angat Dam spilled 5,000 cubic meters per second (cms) of water and the province was inundated by deep flood, and more recently in 2011, Angat Dam spilled 1,500 cms and flood rose to more than one meter in Hagonoy.”

Dela Cruz stressed that in two previous incidents, water spilled from Angat Dam is minimal compared to possible 850-Million cubic meters of water that will rush out in case of Angat Dam break.

 He said that possible dam break could be more fatal due to the inexperience of the country in addressing similar disaster.

As lead dam safety engineer of Southern California Edison (SCE), Dela Cruz explained that two primary causes of dam breaks are earth quake and over topping which is usually caused by heavy rains.

However, Dela Cruz said that statistics showed that more dams in the world were breached due to over-topping caused by heavy rainfall.

For his part, Bulacan Governor Wilhelmino Alvarado is not taking the issue lightly.

He also agreed with Dela Cruz that Edcop’s estimates as conservative and likened the aftermath of the dam break into a nuclear explosion.

“Hindi na nananakot tayo, we are just stating facts because the risks are real and was confirmed by different studies.  That is the reason why we are trying to prepare the Bulakenyos,” he said noting that the provincial government is preparing for the first locally initiated earthquake and dam break drill this month.

Citing records from the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs), Alvarado said that the MWVF can move anytime and generate a magnitude 7.2 earthquake.

He said that the same study was used by Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System (MWSS) to justify the conduct of a feasibility study on the integrity of the Angat Dam in preparation for its rehabilitation.

President Aquino has allocated P5.7-Billion for the said rehabilitation last year, however, bidding for the actual rehabilitation has been stalled several times.

Delays in the said bidding left Alvarado with no choice but the invoke the old teaching of the Church which says,” nasa Diyos ang awa, nasa tao ang gawa.”

He explained that while God remain merciful to Bulakenyos by not allowing a breach on the Angat Dam, the people have to do their part.

The governor said that aside from prayer, the only other thing they can do improve preparedness in Bulacan citing the 2009 advise of Phivolcs Executive Director Dr. Renato Solidum  saying “Bulacan must prepare for the worst.”

“We will conduct our own regular earthquake and dam break drills,” he said.

For her part, Liz Mungcal, head of the Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction Management Office (PDRRMO) said they are preparing an emergency action plan for the Angat Dam break.

The said action plan will be presented to local mayors in the province for them to come up with similar plans for their own towns and cities.

$14-B Green Fund to be operational by 2014

Albay Gov. Joey Salceda.

MALOLOS CITY—If there was any positive effect coming from Supertyphoon Yolanda, it would most surely be the operationalization by 2014 of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC).

Speaking to journalists at the sidelines of the Climate Change Consciousness Week conference at the SM Convention Center on Tuesday, November 26, Albay Gov. Joey Salceda said Yolanda (international name, Haiyan) has put more pressure on representatives to the recent 19th Conference of Parties (COP) held in Poland to implement the GCF.

“At least $14 billion will be operational by next year,” said Salceda, the elected co-chair for the GCF Board. He disclosed that European countries like Germany, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom (UK), and Australia

have expressed interest in putting the initial donations.

The GCF, Salceda explained, was first conceived in the COP held in Copenhagen in 2009 wherein developed nations were asked to contribute a total of $30 billion per year from 2009 to 2015; and $100 million from 2015 to 2020.

However, the GCF was not put into operation until it was formally created in Cancun, Mexico where the COP16 was held in 2010. The following year, the GCF was finally formed in Durban, South Africa. Salceda said operationalization of the GCF can be finally approved in the United Nations’ General Assembly (UN-GA) by September 2014.

“It is good news in itself, because it means that we are moving forward,” said the governor who also spoke during a parallel workshop on climate change for journalists. When asked by PromdiNews if the said fund can be availed of for victims of Yolanda, Salceda said that it is open for developing countries to address risks of climate

change.

“GCF is an instrument of the family of nations to enable developing countries in performing their functions in adaptation and mitigation, so hindi lang sa calamity, risk based yan,” he said. At present, the GCF board is finalizing requirements for accreditation of countries interested in availing the fund.

In an earlier statement, Lawyer Mary Ann Lucille Sering, secretary of the Climate Change Commission of the Philippines, said the “the swift operationalization of the Green Climate Fund is critical to helping developing countries adapt to and cope with the worsening impacts of climate change.”

 

Sec. Sering (L) with Vice President Binay.

Sering added that “we are committed to exercising leadership and ensuring the essential requirements are fulfilled by September 2014 so money will start flowing to countries that are in need and most vulnerable.

Many of our countries have put in place policies and domestic financing strategies to make our economies resilient, rebuild communities better and in a transformational manner – but we need international support to help us bridge the gap and make this transition towards climate-resilient low-emission development.”

The GCF’s purpose is to make a significant contribution to the global efforts to limit warming to two degrees Celsius by providing support to developing countries to help limit or reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, and to adapt to the unavoidable impacts of climate change. Dino Balabo

Members of  Philippine Network of Environmental Journalists (PNEJ).

NFA to looters: Share rice to other typhoon victims

by Dino Balabo

NFA warehouse in Malolos City, Bulacan. Photo by Shane Velasco, PIA.

MALOLOS CITY—The National Food Authority (NFA) vowed not to go after to those responsible in looting their warehouse in Alangalang, Leyte last week.

Instead, the food agency called on those involved to share the rice they took from the warehouse with fellow victims of super typhoon Yolanda.

In an interview with Radyo Bulacan yesterday, NFA spokesman Rex Estoperez said that typhoon Yolanda left an extraordinary situation that left some people to do extraordinary steps.

He said that while NFA personnel in Leyte were able to get plate numbers of vehicles like jeeps, pick-up trucks and tricycles used in the looting, they will not file charges.

“Sa mga ganoong pagkakataon, hindi pases na gutom ka ay gagawa ka ng masama, pero ang pakiusap namin sa mga nakakuha, eh i-share na lang sa mga nabiktima rin,” Estoperez said noting that “ito ang panahon ng pagtutulungan.”

Based on records, NFA lost 33,000 bags of rice in the said looting, along with 16,000 bags of rice and another 96,000 bags of palay that got wet during the typhoon.

Estoperez, however , made assurance that despite the above loses, the NFA have enough inventory of rice for calamity stricken areas in Visayas,including in areas like Bohol which was hit by an earthquake, Zamboanga which suffered from an armed conflict and areas in Luzon damaged by typhoon Santi in early October.

The NFA spokesman also said that since November 14, the agency has been releasing an average of 15,000 bags of rice to the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) for repacking in Manila.

The said volume is in addition to 53,000 bags being re-packed daily in Tacloban City.

NFA will stop releasing rice to DSWD today (Sunday).

With regards to rice supply in the coming weeks, Estoperez said that the NFA Council has approved importation of 500,000 metric tons of rice which is expected to arrive in the country before the end of December.

For next year, he said that an initial 350,000 metric tons of rice will be imported.

He explained that decision if the country will import more rice next year depends on the fourth quarter assessment of rice harvested in the country.

“The NFA will still to decide on whether to import more rice or not for next year,” he said noting that arriving imported rice in December was meant to address needs in calamity stricken areas.

Citing NFA records, Estoperez said that rice producing areas in the country were affected by calamities.

This includes Samar and Leyte provinces which he said produces a third of rice produce in the country.

Other rice producing areas are Cagayan Valley in Region 2, Nueva Ecija and Bulacan in Regon 3, along with provinces in regions 4, and five and areas in Mindanao. 

Journalist recalls Yolanda ordeal

How Samar Weekly Express' Editor -in-Chief Ricky Bautista survived Yolanda's onslaught is a miracle. How he will continue his job as a journalist is another story.

MALOLOS CITY—Days before Super Typhoon Yolanda pummeled the island of Samar with devastating ferocity, 39- year old journalist Ricky Bautista of the Philippine Star was busy reinforcing his house located at Sitio Bangon, Barangay Canmanila in Basey town.

At 7 a.m. on November 8, Yolanda unleashed her wrath on Basey and nearby areas leaving indescribable damage aggravated by 10- to 30-meter- high storm surges. In a series of text messages sent to this writer, Bautista described his experience noting that his reinforced house felt like being massively pelted by stones and sand when Yolanda passed through.

“Sa lakas nito (Yolanda) parang buhawi na anytime ay pwedeng liparin ang bahay ko,” he said noting that he secured his wife and two boys aged 5 and 7 by staying under their dining table, praying.

 

Days after Yolanda.

Bautista was reached by PromdiNews on Sunday after getting his contact number from Ariel Sebellino, the executive director of the Philippine Press Institute (PPI).

A journalist for 18 years who covered a number of disasters including the aftermath of an earthquake in Bohol, Bautista said that Yolanda was different and its devastation comparable to hurricane Katrina in the United States.

“This is the most tragic and devastating natural intervention I have seen, it can be compared to (hurricane) Katrina in the US,” he said Bautista’s description of devastation left behind by Yolanda is not without basis.

He said that in his village, only four houses were left standing, including his. “In my village at least apat lang bahay na natira nakatayo including mine. Sa coastal Barangay ng Bacubac and San Antonio, both facing Tacloban City, 90 percent of houses, of light materials and concrete were wiped out. In Barangay New Road, ganun din, in Jinamic island, it is reported na konti lang ang naka-survive,” he said.

The devastation came despite the preparations of local government units. Bautista said: “Obviously our town and the rest of Samar are prepared for the typhoon Yolanda. All LGUs and local DRRMC have readied rescue, relief, evacuation centers.

But we were caught off guard by the storm surge with waves as high as 10 to 15 meters or lampas pa sa taas ng niyog or kasing-taas ng two-storey building.” He added that if not for the storm surge, Basey would have less damage and casualties. “Kung lakas ng bagyo lang, baka walang ganoong patay.

Pero dahil sa storm surge or tsunami-like waves, marami ang namatay. Our town of Basey was wiped out by water. Public market, tourism office, municipal hall, PNP building, evacuation centers, commercial establishments were all wiped out,” he said.

Indeed, Basey and the rest of Samar island are still mourning but the agony is far from over, more than a week after the storm. Bautista said, “it’s been more than a week, dead victims are still left untouched in some areas, some are buried like dogs in Basey. No proper accounting of dead bodies, some areas are still asking for relief from government.”

Bautista (L) with fellow journalist and survivor Rommel Rutor (R).

He also said that not only residents fell victim to the storm, as it also took its toll on community press and journalists. He himself was not able to send any stories for the Philippine Star after November 7 because power lines were down, which might take three to six months to restore.

This means, community newspapers and radio stations will have to wait a little longer to resume operations.

“Local papers and radio are still off to this time. They have problem on management personnel, working press, office supplies, machines, and electricity,” he said.  Dino Balabo

US-based company vowed to match Fil-AMs donations

MALOLOS CITY—As the number of victims of super typhoon Yolanda climbed to 4,460 in the Visayas, a US-based power company vowed to match donations of its Filipino-America employees.

But donations are not limited to Filipinos living in California, but to other nationalities as Southern California Edison (SCE) joined the relief campaign by its Filipino staffs.

The campaign was even posted on SEC’s website and facebook account along with a story encouraging people to donate.

“To assist the people in the Philippines, SCE’s parent company Edison International will be kicking off a Typhoon Haiyan Disaster Relief Campaign on Nov. 15 in which the company will match each employee-donated dollar up to $25,000. The campaign will go through Feb. 28, 2014. There will also be a Facebook campaign through Nov. 21 for the community where Edison International will match “likes” up to $5,000,” the story said.

The story which was posted on the SCE website added, “contributions from employees and customers will be donated to Doctors Without Borders,  Gawad Kalinga USA and American National Red Cross, nonprofits equipped to help with the immediate needs of those devastated by the typhoon including providing food, water, shelter and medical care.”

It also quoted Janet Clayton, the senior vice president of Corporate Communications for Edison International and SCE saying  “we have a strong Filipino presence in our employee base who may have family and friends impacted by Typhoon Haiyan. It is in times like these that we are reminded that natural disasters can occur anytime and so we need to be prepared.”

 

Dela Cruz (R) with Vice Gov. Fernando (L) and ex-Vice Governor Plamenco

For Filipino employees of SCE like engineer Roderick Dela Cruz, the images of the devastation Typhoon Haiyan has brought to his home country of the Philippines is heart-wrenching.

However, Dela Cruz is thankful his family resides in Bulacan in the northern part of the country, and was spared any major loss.

A senior engineer with SCE who for the past four years has been working with the Philippines government on dam safety, Dela Cruz was quoted saying  “the magnitude of [the typhoon], it’s really surprising “I was not expecting it — it’s mind-blowing.”

Another employee identified as Antonio Manimbo, a telecommunications engineer was also mentioned in the story.

It said that Manimbo was watching a Filipino news channel, when reports started coming in about “the biggest storm ever” to hit his homeland. When the video footage started pouring in, he immediately made calls to his family back home.

Fortunately, his family lives in northern Philippines and were not affected.

But sadly, some of his fellow members in FilBarkada, an SCE Filipino American employee resource group, have still been unable to reach family members back home.

“They still can’t get in touch with them,” said Manimbo, who also serves as president of FilBarkada.

As this developed, the United Nations’ Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that as one of the largest catastrophes to ever hit the Philippines, super typhoon Yolanda has displaced over 900,000 people and affected more than 11.8 million people.

Citing reports from the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council and the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD), the OCHA said there were a reported 4,460 deaths as of November 14.

However, Malacanang said the next day that casualties are below than what OCHA reported. Dino Balabo

Revive Robredo's vision on disaster preparedness

MALOLOS CITY—Former Interior and Local Government Secretary Jesse Robredo’s vision on disaster preparedness must be revived, a Balik-Scientist Program (BSP) awardee said in the aftermath of super typhoon Yolanda.

It is a very good program and I think it will be the key in community resilience against disaster,” said Engineer Roderick Dela Cruz, a lead dam safety engineer of the Southern California Edison (SCE) in the United States.

A BSP awardee earlier this year, Dela Cruz was referring to the unimplemented Seal of Disaster Preparedness (SDP) for Floods launched by Robredo at least three months before his death in 2012.

The SDP was meant to motivate local government units to put disaster preparedness on top of their priority development agenda.

If implemented, SDP,dela Cruz said could have improved capabilities of local government units in addressing and mitigating impacts of disaster, along with creating greater awareness and conscious on the ranks of community members.

“In the US, the Federal Government have established disaster preparedness program  enjoining not only government units but business corporations as well to comply,” Dela said in an Skype interview yesterday.

The said program, he explained is implemented all year round and government along with members of the business community are given certificate of compliance every year.

“It is very similar to what Robredo would like to achieve,” he said referring to the late secretary’s vision of institutionalizing disaster preparedness for floods.

As a dam safety expert who provided free consultative services to Bulacan Provincial Government and the Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System (MWSS) on the proposed Angat Dam rehabilitation, Dela Cruz highlighted Robredo’s focus on floods.

“I think the late secretary understood that the biggest risk to us Filipinos is water, that’s why he focused SDP on floods,” he said.

He explained that water related disaster risks in the Philippines have manifested in recent calamities.

This includes typhoon induced flood in Metro Manila in 2009, Bulacan from 2011 to 2013, in Mindanao in 2011 and 2012; and more recently in the Visayas which was hit by super typhoon Yolanda.

“We really have to put our heads on how to address water risks,” Dela Cruz noting that even landslide is triggered by heavy rainfall, along with possible dam break.

He said that while earthquake is one of the leading causes of dam break in the world, data showed more cases of dam break due to overtopping caused by heavy rainfall.

Based on data posted on the DILG website, it cited records from the Mines and Geosciences Bureau and River Basin Control Office of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources that 1,127 out of 1,634, or 69 percent of cities and municipalities are susceptible to river or flashfloods.

The said data also noted that from 2009 to 2011 alone, more than P55-billion worth of infrastructure and properties were damaged water related risk due to typhoons like Ondoy, Pepeng and Sendong.

It added that around 1,200 people, mostly in Cagayan de Oro City and Iligan City, also perished during due to flooding caused by typhoon Sendong in 2011.Dino Balabo

Bulacan braces for possible Angat Dam break

EdCop's Noel Ortigas during the TWG meeting.

MALOLOS CITY—Recent disasters in the Visayas kept dam operators and local officials in Bulacan preparing for possible Angat Dam Break.

Liz Mungcal, head of the Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction Management Office (PDRRMO) said that before the Bohol earthquake struck, they have been meeting with dam operators.

This includes operators of the Angat, Ipo and Butos Dam, along with officials of the Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System (MWSS), and the Common Purpose Facilities (CPF).

“We have to prepare in anticipation for disaster that will be brought by possible break of the Angat Dam,” said Muncgal in the sidelines of the meeting of members of the Angat Dam break technical working group at the La Mesa Dam in Novaliches, Quezon City on Tuesday, November 12.

Mungcal noted that Angat Dam break can occur anytime if  case of movements in the  Marikina West Valley Faultline (MWVF).

 

La Mesa Dam watershed

The same was echoed by members of the TWG who noted that the disaster woild be unimaginable.

To prepare for such possibilities, Mungcal said the provincial government in coordination with the National Power Corporation (Napocor) and the Engineering Development Corporation of the Philippines (Edcop) had prepared an emergency action plan (EAP).

The said EAP will be presented to Bulacan and Pampanga mayors and disaster officers next week.

Some of the inputs on the said EAP is the establishment of early warning system (EWS), evacuation routes and possible mass evacuation center.

Some of the evacuation areas identified are located in the upland areas of Bulacan, Pampanga and Nueva Ecija.

Based on simulation study conducted by Tonkin & Taylor International and Edcop, a wall water rising to 10 to 30 meters will rush out into the Angat River within hours in case of a dam break.

The said on rush of water is said to wipe everything on its path that will make damages left by earthquake in Bohol and typhoon Yolanda in Visayas as a thing of the past.

Disaster officials said that it will initially damage Bulacan, but the long term effect will be in Metro Manila which will ran out of water for months.

This is due to the fact that Metro Manila is drawing 97 percent of its potable water requirement  from Angat Dam.   Dino Balabo