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MALOLOS
CITY—Inaccuracies in the conduct of feasibility study in Angat Dam could result
in catastrophic event.
This
is part of the of a Bulakenyo dam safety expert who conducted analysis on the
six month feasibility study conducted by an international consultant for the
P5.7-Billion rehabilitation of the Angat Dam.
The
bidding for the rehabilitation of the dam is likely to be held before the end
of the year.
Engineer Roderick Dela Cruz cited simulation conducted by Tonkin and Taylor International on possible dam break.
He
said that simulation showed that towns of Pulilan, Plaridel, Baliag, Calumpit
and the City of Malolos will be inundated by five to 10 meters deep flood,
while in Hagonoy and Paombong, a meter deep flood will inundate both towns.
Comparing
said data in two flood events in Bulacan, Dela Cruz said that the simulation on
possible dam break is inaccurate.
He
said that in 2011, over a meter deep flood inundated Hagonoy when Angat Dam
release about 1,000 cubic meters per second (cms) of water into Angat River at
the height of typhoon Pedring.
In
October 1978, Hagonoy town was inundated by at six to seven feet deep flood
inundated Bulacan when Angat Dan
released 5,000 cms at the height of typhoon Kading.
Based
on records, Angat Dam have the capacity to store at least 800-Million cubic
meters of water.
Dela
Cruz said that in case of a dam break, all that water could rush out and it
will not only cause five to 10 meters deep flood in the towns of Plaridel,
Pulilan Calumpit and Malolos.
Based
on his estimates, the Tonkin and Taylor simulation study have a 20 meter plus
or minus inaccuracy.
“Its
good if the outcome will result into minus 20 meter inaccuracy, but what if it
is on the plus 20 meter inaccuracy,” he said noting that abovementioned town
will be inundated by at 25 to 30 meter deep flood.
As
a dam safety expert managing 82 dams in the United States, Dela Cruz stressed
that providing accurate data in preparation for disaster is crucial.
This
is due to the fact that people depends on information government by officials,
and prepare themselves based on it.
“What
if people prepare for a 10 meter deep flood, when a 20 meter flood is coming,
they will have nowhere to go,” he said.
Dela
Cruz also scored the lack of site specific seismic study on the Angat Dam.
“I
understand their situation, they were given six months to conduct a feasibility
study,” he said noting that the time given is just not enough for a more
comprehensive study on the dam.
With
regards to country’s preparedness on possible dam break, he said that the
country still have no national dam safety program or an approve dam safety law.
He
said that the Philippines is the only country in Southeast Asia that still do
not have a dam safety legislation.
Earlier
this year, Vietnam passed their own version of dam safety law.
Dela
Cruz said that lack a national dam safety program increases risk of dam failure
in the country.
This
is due to the absence of available financing for the maintenance, upgrades and
repairs of dam structures, along with lack of single accountable authority on
dam safety.
He
also said that it also entails lack of emergency preparedness and public awareness
on how to deal with possibilities dam
break. Dino Balabo